Sunday, November 15, 2009

Burn, Baby Burn!

I am no Nostradamus, no prophet or seer....but I have a prediction. I have a prediction that my liberal buddies are not going to like, and are going to disagree with. (queue in John! lol) But this is my prediction. And it will sit here till I am (hopefully) proven wrong or (disastrously) proven right. And here is my prediction:

Sarah Palin will be the Republican nominee in 2012...and she will win.

Now that is a stunner. Who would have thought that this country bumpkin whom (as my buddy John so accurately put it) John McCain subjected us to would even have a prayer in hell to be the next president of the US.

Now to explain Why and How this travesty will occur. (Surely you know me better than to make such a statement without presenting my reasoning!)

First before I get into the why and how let me refute the naysayers on why they say it will not happen:

(1) She is a woman....while I think very few will still argue this after Hillary Clinton nearly became president this last election, there are still enough out there that it is worth mentioning. And as already mentioned, I have two words for you...Hillary Clinton, 'nuff said.

(2) She is too conservative. This nation's politics are in a perpetual pendulum. We get one party in power that leans liberal...the country swings liberal. The opposing party then comes into power and it swings right. This is how our nation's history has played out. It is this political pendulum that has made our system work and kept us in a somewhat balanced keel.

(3) She is too inexperienced. I would guess after Mr. Obama overcame this argument that those that opposed him would see its fallacy and those that supported him would see their hypocrisy in using it...but hey it takes all types. And after all....she did write her prerequisite autobiography (which I will sooooo have to get back to in another blog!)

So let me explain why I feel she will be the presidential nominee and why (provisionally of course) she will win.

(1) Despite her stupidity she is still popular with the moderates and conservatives. (yes...I did say moderates) She spouts enough Steve Forbes and other business crap that people (least of all herself) dont understand but sounds pretty accurate (to the unsuspecting mind) As President Obama pushes his agenda, the argument made by the Republicans (and enhanced with the media's help trumpeting their rhetoric) is that Obama's agenda is too liberal and socialist. Now this country fears that word socialism. Is funny since the first true socialist movement was the church in the book of Acts, (yeah don't pass out I am quoting the Bible!) The church in Acts had people that sold all they had and gave it to the church and they all lived as equals. Of course, you also had your first politicians, people that lied and used the system to their advantage to make themselves look good (Anannias and Saphira-who ended up dead). But the thing to point out is that liberals are not advocating true socialism in which everybody lives as equals. They simply are proponents of the ideal that those that have, have some responsibility to the have-nots...particularly those have-nots that have no means of coming out of the "have-not" status.

Any way..I digress. The point is that the Right is effectively painting this Administration as too far to the left. And the further to the left they push the public opinion of this administration...the wider the middle ground will be for the next campaign. Lets face it, the last campaign had two guys that actually agreed on too many things. There was very little middle ground and moderates really had to choose on personal and personality reasons more than political platforms. The more the Right can push the public into seeing this administration (and the democrats as a whole) as ultra left...the wider the middle ground to grab at moderates.

As for the conservatives...need I say more? As my best friend Christina always says...REALLY???

(2) Ever since Reagan created the "Moral Majority", the Republicans have managed to make morals a part of politics. Now what I mean by that (before any random conservative that MAY have read this far jumps on my morality) is that they have taken issues that are none of the government's business and made it the government's business and made it part of their platform. Let's take two examples really quick.

Abortion. Now PERSONALLY...mind you PERSONALLY....I detest abortion. I think it is wrong and I think "MORALLY" it is wrong. I also find it disturbing that the people that have abortions are those that would be on the side of liberals and moderates...while the conservatives continue populating the world! lol However, while I personally feel it is wrong, I politically hold to the belief that it is none of the government's business, and that it is equally wrong for one group of people to FORCE their morality on another group of people.

Gay rights. I will come straight out and say it straight.....I AM STRAIGHT. There is not a gay bone in my body. As a matter of fact I find gay behavior down right disgusting. That is MY PERSONAL feelings on it. However, one again, while I personally detest it, I politically hold to the fact that it is not the government's place to decide what happens in my bedroom, and to set me apart and ostracize me because they do not approve. It is EQUALLY as wrong for one group of people to force their morality on another group of people.

This is where conservative politics success has hid for a long time. And trust me, as health reform runs into the obstacles of Abortion (which by the way, if the government should not make laws against it, they should not fund it either...that is the point, the government has no business at all in it) and President Obama allows the gay and lesbian movement to make him out to be their hero, when the next election comes out the right AND the moderates will bite him in the ass!

(3) Conservative politics are all about the slippery slope...and friend...we are on their proverbial slippery slope. Frankly put conservative politics is fueled by the religious right, and just as their religion is fueled by fear, their politics are also fueled by fear. I have found this ironic. For a group of people that hold that their God is all powerful, he apparently has no power to protect them from the horrible liberals that want to (and I quote) "imprison them for worshiping and loving God" (that quote comes from some family and friends..hell what can I say? I live in NW GA....go figure!) The left is out to make gays and lesbians and baby murderers run this nation and pack them off to jail and ultimately one day kill them! REALLY??? (sorry Christina..there I go again! lol) We cant even get serial killers killed these days and you think we are going to get you killed????

The point I am making here is that the Republicans are doing a wonderful job in pushing this slippery slope. Never mind that the economy is on a slow recovery. Never mind that for the first time in eight years we are earning respect NOT FEAR (a detail conservatives have a hard time differentiating, and a concept they cannot seem to grasp-fear and respect are NOT the same thing!) Never mind all that...we are headed for doom and destruction, and the more they can prove their point, the more we play into their hands.

(4) She is a woman. Now before you jump on this one hear me out. there are a couple of important points to be made.

First...when President Obama was running, while HE himself did not make a big deal of it, the media and the party did make a big deal about the historical nature of an African-American running for president. And while Obama himself did not use it, many people made it out that you were a racist if you voted against him. This was a historical moment for the black man and anybody that opposed it did not oppose him or his views, but rather his color. In the same manner, the Republicans are not TOTALLY stupid. They can learn that game, and trust me two can play that game. Palin herself will not play on it, the Republicans are too smart for that. The Party, their branch of the media (Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, etc.) will play on it. Hell, my brother has already accused ME of being sexist because I hate Palin so much. This is an issue that Democrats brought on themselves during the Obama Campaign, and it will come back to haunt them.

Second...There was a portion of the country that voted for Obama merely because he was black. Now admittedly, it was not as big a percentage as the blowhard idiot Rush Limbaugh and his cronies made it out to be. But indeed there WAS a percentage. Now in states where it will be close, that small percentage can and did make a difference. In that same manner, there will be a portion of the population that will vote for Palin just because she is a woman. Once again, while that percentage will be small, in key states that small percentage CAN and WILL make a difference.

I could come up with more reasons why this depressing idea is not so far fetched but you are getting bored and I still need to discuss the how...How will the Republicans pull this off? Follow me closely...

(1) Stall-Stall every piece of legislation the Obama administration puts out. Find every possible means politically and legislatively to stall everything. President Obama was elected on some significant policy goals. Stall closing Guantanamo Bay, stall bringing the 9/11 masterminds to justice and carefully control (and criticize) the means by which they are brought to justice. (see note below regarding this one), stall Health Reform. Keep it all from happening. Politics is as much a game of defense as it is offense.

They do not have to stall long. They just have to stall long enough for mid elections. If they can get control back of Capitol Hill, then it is a smooth road for them from there. From that point they can make the president a lame duck and not allow one single thing through until it meets their approval and agenda.

Furthermore, IF they can stall it long enough to take control then they can control how it is perceived by the American public. Seniors (vital to winning Florida which we will come back to) were saved by their intervention, and the list goes on and on.

(2) Control-Once they stall till mid elections and take over Capitol Hill (which is a very strong possibility, as seen by history. Take Clinton and Bush Jr. for example) Then it is a matter of controlling the agenda. Once they win, they will proudly state the American people have spoken and they will set out to completely destroy the Administration's agenda. By doing this, Mr. Obama will not get to do those things he promised on the campaign trail to get done. The American public, being the gullible idiots that we are, will see it as Obama's failure, rather than Congresses, mostly because we were to busy jacking off during our Social Studies classes to understand that the President can only accomplish what Congress allows him to accomplish.

(3) Propaganda-at this point the propaganda blitz begins. The president will be painted as a man that cannot keep his word, and cannot get things done and we must get somebody in there that will get things done and turn this country around. Playing defense in a presidential campaign is difficult as the Republicans found out in 2008 when they were scrambling to get out from under the shadow of George W. Bush. And while democrats benefited from that administration, they need to remember that they will be playing defense in the next one...and if they don't get things accomplished they will have nothing to defend and the Republicans will be able to consummate their running argument that Obama is all talk and rhetoric but no action. And if they manage that then it is a done deal.

(4) The numbers game-Let's face it. The Electoral college is outdated and is designed in such a manner that the only people that benefit from it is the conservative right, which is why they defend it so vehemently. The presidential election is NOT about who the nation chooses as a president, but rather WHERE those people live and piecing together a puzzle that equals success. Now granted, our forefathers designed the Electoral College to keep the presidential vote from being a mere approval of the mob, as they were very distrustful of the masses. But they could not foresee urbanization and how the society would develop. And of course whatever party is not in power knows that the ticket to success is piecing together that numerical puzzle and will never really move to have this outdated system replaced.

And here is why Palin will be President in 2012. The whole game played right and she will take it in a close but successful campaign. Stall, control, affect the public opinion through propaganda and ultimately play the number game. And it all goes together. If you keep Health Reform from passing long enough to gain control then have it removed completely or edited to where it is meaningless legislation, then convince the seniors in Florida you saved their asses....you get their vote..and you get Florida. It is a strategical game, one that requires gifted slight of hands and illusions, mirrors and smoke...but it is not impossible, and ignoring it and declaring it is ludicrous and impossible only assures its success.

So what has to happen for Palin to not be the leader of the free world?

(1) Make it happen. Yes we can? Then fucking shut up and get it done. Pass legislation that will fix the problems BEFORE the Republicans take over and the rest becomes inevitable.

(2)Keep Capitol Hill. With the elections coming up we should not become complacent. If the opposing party takes over...nothing will get done and the outcome is inevitable.

(3)Balance. Remember, too much law makes things stagnant, too much chaos creates confusion and anarchy. There has to be a balance. Don't push the American people into overcompensating. If you push too much of your agenda, then you will reach the point where the American people will over compensate and Palin or somebody like her will come into power and the whole thing will go back 50 years. I consider myself a moderate for this very reason. I believe both Democrats and Republicans are all about extremes. I dislike extremes and absolutes...the truth is out there and somewhere in the middle.

I dislike Palin as much now, if not more than I did in 2008. The concept of this white trash venomous bitch in the White House terrifies me. She is, in my opinion, a picture of what is really wrong with this country. She is a quitter, as exemplified by her resigning her sworn duty and elected office. She is a liar, as exemplified by the fact she claims it was for family reasons when she it is clear to everybody that it is really for her preparation to run for the presidency. And worst of all, in my opinion, she is a victim, always a victim. It was the media, the liberal, John McCain's staff...it is always somebody other than herself that is to blame for her failures. It cannot be her own venomous and divisive personality, it cannot be her own vile mouth...it is always somebody else. Her upcoming autobiography is must more of the same. She mocked Obama and his autobiographies, stating how he has done nothing to write about. Well Palin * wink wink * I have news for you, you have nothing to write about except about how you failed and how you quit. How you left the people of Alaska without a governor after they had given you their sacred confidence and commissioned you to a job that you swore to complete. I may lose in 2012 (ironically the prophesied year for the end of the world) to you...but am I gonna give up? Nope! Am I gonna fight you? Ya betcha!

(Note: I want to make this clear, the Republicans are not trying to stop justice for the masterminds of 9/11. They are trying to control how it is done, presumably for the safety of the country, but more so for them to prove that Democrats are stupid when it comes to national security. Both sides are using this issue politically. The point I was making is that the Republicans are stalling and fighting every thing....if they fight everything....they (in their eyes at least) win enough to make use of later on in the fight.)

6 comments:

Opinionated Gifts said...

Ok, bro. You asked for it. Ha ha ha.

Seriously, you've clearly put some thought into this and your points have logic to them, but here's why I think you are wrong and I hope to talk you down from the ledge. So...point by point, my response, you're words regular face, mine bold

(1) She is a woman....while I think very few will still argue this after Hillary Clinton nearly became president this last election, there are still enough out there that it is worth mentioning. And as already mentioned, I have two words for you...Hillary Clinton, 'nuff said.

I agree with you here. This is not a valid argument against Sarah Palin being elected. I'll also add here that I thought Hillary ran a TERRIBLE campaign in the primaries and that she should have her campaign people shot for such terrible work. That said, I think she's been a great Secretary of State.

(2) She is too conservative. This nation's politics are in a perpetual pendulum. We get one party in power that leans liberal...the country swings liberal. The opposing party then comes into power and it swings right. This is how our nation's history has played out. It is this political pendulum that has made our system work and kept us in a somewhat balanced keel.
The Pendulum swings slower than you suggest here. If we elect a Republican in 2012, it won't be the pendulum itself as it will be a reaction to some points you make later, i.e. perceived inaction and failures. The country is still in the beginning, the very beginning of a leftward swing.

(3) She is too inexperienced. I would guess after Mr. Obama overcame this argument that those that opposed him would see its fallacy and those that supported him would see their hypocrisy in using it...but hey it takes all types. And after all....she did write her prerequisite autobiography (which I will sooooo have to get back to in another blog!)
I agree with you somewhat here. That argument also proved to not have much sway with voters when it came to Obama. But here's the difference. What persuaded voters to go with Obama despite his lack of experience was his temperament. His ability to remain cool while navigating the rough waters of campaigning first against the hostile forces of Clinton, then McCain who was perceived (wrongly) to have the foreign policy bona fides necessary to the office. Ms. Palin (I love calling her that), has no such quality. She is erratic, defensive and incoherent. Granted, if she hires the right campaign people (if they will work for her) she will handle her scripts well. But once off script, she'll be lost. (next)

Opinionated Gifts said...

So let me explain why I feel she will be the presidential nominee and why (provisionally of course) she will win.

(1) Despite her stupidity she is still popular with the moderates and conservatives. (yes...I did say moderates) She spouts enough Steve Forbes and other business crap that people (least of all herself) dont understand but sounds pretty accurate (to the unsuspecting mind) As President Obama pushes his agenda, the argument made by the Republicans (and enhanced with the media's help trumpeting their rhetoric) is that Obama's agenda is too liberal and socialist.
Every survey shows that while she is popular with those that identify as Republican (a mere 20% of the populace at the moment) and that may include those that think of themselves as moderate, she is in fact not at all popular with real moderates. Those same surveys show that her approval ratings are in the tank amongst those who do not identify as Republican (31% among Independents, 4% among Democrats...how she manages 4% is fascinating to me)

(2) Ever since Reagan created the "Moral Majority", the Republicans have managed to make morals a part of politics. Now what I mean by that (before any random conservative that MAY have read this far jumps on my morality) is that they have taken issues that are none of the government's business and made it the government's business and made it part of their platform.
Okay, historical point here. It was Jerry Falwell who created the "Moral Majority" (which was neither), but it WAS Reagan who brilliantly exploited them to his advanage in 1980 and 1984. Bush Sr. followed suit in 1988 and that Bill Clinton was able to begin to marginalize in 1992.
As to abortion and gay rights, Moderates will be swayed by the fact that for the last 40 years, abortions are reduced under Democratic administrations and rise under Republican (yup, really). While the anti-choice movement has gotten more radical (more attacks and murders) that will again, cause Moderates to sway more toward Obama's (which are revisited Clinton) solutions.
Gay rights. The vast majority of new voters, who turned out for Obama last year and who will vote again in 2012, are so pro Gay rights that they don't even know why anyone is discussing it. Seriously. Gay marriage is a no brainer for them. It's not even worth thinking about. Yes, States are losing this battle one by one, but I'm telling you, the voters coming up over the next 10 years (including 2010 and 2012) will take things in the opposite direction.

Opinionated Gifts said...

3) Conservative politics are all about the slippery slope...and friend...we are on their proverbial slippery slope. Frankly put conservative politics is fueled by the religious right, and just as their religion is fueled by fear, their politics are also fueled by fear. I have found this ironic. For a group of people that hold that their God is all powerful, he apparently has no power to protect them from the horrible liberals that want to (and I quote) "imprison them for worshiping and loving God" (that quote comes from some family and friends..hell what can I say? I live in NW GA....go figure!) The left is out to make gays and lesbians and baby murderers run this nation and pack them off to jail and ultimately one day kill them! REALLY??? (sorry Christina..there I go again! lol) We cant even get serial killers killed these days and you think we are going to get you killed????...
The point I am making here is that the Republicans are doing a wonderful job in pushing this slippery slope. Never mind that the economy is on a slow recovery. Never mind that for the first time in eight years we are earning respect NOT FEAR (a detail conservatives have a hard time differentiating, and a concept they cannot seem to grasp-fear and respect are NOT the same thing!) Never mind all that...we are headed for doom and destruction, and the more they can prove their point, the more we play into their hands.
Good point and I agree with you. And yes some will be swayed by this argument. But Ms. Palin's (have I mentioned I love calling her that?)negatives will more likely outweigh those concerns. Yes, the whackjobs that think she is wonderful and for whom she speaks will go along with it, but they are even a tiny portion of that 20% that call themselves Republican. Also by 2012, the economy will be in much better shape than it is now. Unemployment will still be higher than we want, but it will be more like 6% to 7% according to Economists across the board. Some of this will be due to the normal rebounds and the administration will be able to point to "green jobs" and infrastructure spending that is already starting as responsible. This will also sway Moderates.

(4) She is a woman. Now before you jump on this one hear me out. there are a couple of important points to be made....etc

I think that this will work to her advantage to some degree. She already apologized to Hillary Clinton in her book, no doubt in an attempt to strengthen that very point. And yes there will be those that will vote for her simply because she is a woman. Its not wrong to point out that there are voters of every stripe out there. Just as there were voters that voted for AND against Obama, because he is black.
But again, only a small minority. Ms. Palin's (hee hee hee) record on women's issues is abhorent, even to Moderates (making rape victims pay for rape kits, etc.) The majority of women (Democrat, Republican and Independent) are pro choice. We know this from poll after poll. And Ms. Palin's record and beliefs on this issue will scare away all but those that think that killing George Tiller was a ticket to Heaven.

Opinionated Gifts said...

How will the Republicans pull this off? Follow me closely...

(1) Stall-Stall every piece of legislation the Obama administration puts out. Find every possible means politically and legislatively to stall everything. President Obama was elected on some significant policy goals. Stall closing Guantanamo Bay, stall bringing the 9/11 masterminds to justice and carefully control (and criticize) the means by which they are brought to justice. (see note below regarding this one), stall Health Reform. Keep it all from happening. Politics is as much a game of defense as it is offense.
Yeah they are already doing that and it is working well for them in some cases, but their numbers are still dwindling in significant areas. Yes some polls show a Republican winning against Obama in 2012, but only a generic one. Those polls that show generics are almost never accurate in terms of predicting an outcome. As well, we know from exit polls that a good number of Republicans voted for Obama last year specifically because John McCain picked Ms. Palin to be his VP. Those people are not going to change their mind about her after they read her blame game autobiography.
The stall tactic will work better for Mitt Romney (who is far more likely to be nominated) It might help him enough to win. But not Ms. Palin.
As well, the odds of the Republicans getting control of the House and/or Senate are pretty slim. For one there are more vulnerable Republicans in the Senate in 2010 than there are vulnerable Republicans. Indeed, we may see some "Blue Dogs" replaced with winning "Progressive" Democrats making the Senate more liberal. The same with the House. It's entirely possible that the Republicans will pick up a few seats there, but its also possible, especially if the economy improves enough over the next 6 to 8 months, that they will gain nothing, or even lose 1 or 2 seats. Its really too early to tell either way given the instability of just about everything.

(4) The numbers game-Let's face it. The Electoral college is outdated and is designed in such a manner that the only people that benefit from it is the conservative right, which is why they defend it so vehemently. The presidential election is NOT about who the nation chooses as a president, but rather WHERE those people live and piecing together a puzzle that equals success. Now granted, our forefathers designed the Electoral College to keep the presidential vote from being a mere approval of the mob, as they were very distrustful of the masses. But they could not foresee urbanization and how the society would develop. And of course whatever party is not in power knows that the ticket to success is piecing together that numerical puzzle and will never really move to have this outdated system replaced.
I'm with you there, bro. It's outdated and worthless, but I don't think it will work to Palin's advantage. She won't win New York, California or Florida. Texas yes, Texas has enough bat shit crazies in it. But there's a significant population shift there that they are swinging slowly leftward as well so she may not even do that. If she can't get even one of those 4 states, she's toast, assuming she wins the primaries.

Opinionated Gifts said...

So what has to happen for Palin to not be the leader of the free world?

(1) Make it happen. Yes we can? Then fucking shut up and get it done. Pass legislation that will fix the problems BEFORE the Republicans take over and the rest becomes inevitable.
Watch what happens with Immigration this and next year

(2)Keep Capitol Hill. With the elections coming up we should not become complacent. If the opposing party takes over...nothing will get done and the outcome is inevitable.
As I said, I think this is actually pretty likely.I'm not 100% certain, but I am confident at this point.


(3)Balance. Remember, too much law makes things stagnant, too much chaos creates confusion and anarchy. There has to be a balance. Don't push the American people into overcompensating. If you push too much of your agenda, then you will reach the point where the American people will over compensate and Palin or somebody like her will come into power and the whole thing will go back 50 years. I consider myself a moderate for this very reason. I believe both Democrats and Republicans are all about extremes. I dislike extremes and absolutes...the truth is out there and somewhere in the middle.
Yes, and that's why Obama isn't pushing single payer as a health care reform option even though it is economically the best solution for our situation. (but this is for another discussion at another time).
The HCR bill will actually be pretty balanced and to my mind, probably TOO balanced. But I think you will see more of that kind of behavior.


Finally my own 2 cents. Sarah Palin is a joke. Conservative pundits say it all the time, Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh notwithstanding and you yourself make the case against her that will kill her chances in your last paragraph.

Fear not my friend. Her 15 minutes are about up. Huckabee and Romney will mop the floor with her. Those are the ones you have to worry about.

Peace,
John

Volalibermente said...

Thank-you for solidifying my decision move to Costa Rica just for the fun of it today ;) Hope your wrong this time!

 

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